From Absolute to Individual Speed Thresholds in Football

An Empirical Analysis of Variability and Diagnostic Solutions for Implementation.

Abstract

Background: The classification of running intensities in football is often based on absolute thresholds that do not sufficiently account for individual differences in game speed and physical performance. Given the prevalence of injuries, the necessity of individualized speed thresholds is being examined. Objective: This study investigates alternative methods for the individualization of speed thresholds, particularly considering individual physiological parameters such as maximal aerobic speed (MAS), maximal sprint speed (MSS), and anaerobic speed reserve (ASR). It includes an empirical analysis of various intensity zones at the absolute thresholds (19.8 km/h and 25.2 km/h) established for world-class players. Methods: The analysis is based on official speed data from the FIFA World Cup 2022TM, All data were extracted from official post-match reports. After applying filtering criteria (playing time >270 min, exclusion of goalkeepers), 196 players were included in the analysis. Players were categorized by position (Defenders (DF), Midfielders (MF), Forwards (FW)). Statistical analyses were conducted using non-parametric methods (Kruskal-Wallis test, Dunn’s test with Bonferroni correction) in R (Version 4.4.2). Results: Maximal speeds differed significantly across playing positions. Forwards (FW) recorded the highest values (Mean (M) = 33.23 km/h, Standard Deviation (SD) = 1.30 km/h) and showed a highly significant difference compared to midfielders (MF; M = 32.04 km/h, Z = 3.71, p = 0.0006). Additionally, a significant difference was found between MF and defenders (DF; M = 32.66 km/h; Z =2.47; p = 0.0136). Individual intensity values at the absolute thresholds showed large variations, with a maximal difference of 60.91% at the 19.8 km/h threshold (mean deviation: 15.86%) and 77.52% at the 25.2 km/h threshold (mean deviation: 20.18%). The findings indicate that predefined speed zones (e.g., 19.8 km/h and 25.2 km/h) systematically distort individual load assessment, emphasizing the need for a more precise, player-specific classification. Conclusion: Despite existing limitations, this study highlights the potential of shifting from absolute to individualized speed thresholds in football and provides practical approaches for their implementation. The results indicate that a differentiated consideration of individual physiological parameters allows for a more precise load assessment and represents an evidence-based alternative to current standard methods. Integrating internal and external load indicators into a standardized monitoring system could enable more targeted adjustments in training load management. The implementation of individualized speed thresholds may not only optimize load management but also contribute to the prevention of injury-related overload syndromes.