Unlocking Dynamics of Goal-scoring
The Showdown Between Direct and Indirect Transition Goals Across Football Leagues
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51224/SRXIV.383Keywords:
Performance Analysis, Counterattacks, Offensive Transition, Elite Soccer, Game MomentsAbstract
In contemporary football, offensive transitions have an extraordinary impact on goal scoring patterns. Finding the factors that most influence its achievement is crucial, to adopt strategies adapted to the characteristics of the team and the specificity of the championship played. The objective of this study was to provide an analyze the separate and combined impacts of various variables on the success of offensive transitions and their outcomes. The sample consists of 1151 games from nine different countries, grouped into three leagues groups: Top Leagues, Marginal Leagues, and Emerging Leagues. In these matches, the total of 1649 goals scored were classified as direct offensive transitions and offensive transitions resulting from positive outcomes. Binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that goals resulting from positive outcomes of offensive transitions represented an important percentage of total goals scored in all league groups (ranging from 20% to 23%). Offensive transitions played a crucial role in competitive leagues, contributing to approximately 47% of total goals. The top leagues showed an even higher proportion, with over 53% of goals originating from offensive transitions. All league groups highlighted the central zones of the defensive midfield as essential to initiate successful direct offensive transitions. In Emerging Leagues direct offensive transitions are likelier to succeed with three passes than two passes. In marginal leagues, the number of players involved, and passes are related to the starting area.
In the top leagues, the results emphasized the effectiveness of defensive pressure in specific areas and involving more passes and offensive combinations. However, only a small proportion (7%) involved long actions in their first actions. The findings contribute to understanding the tactical aspects of offensive transitions in football to make them more impactful in scoring.
Metrics
References
Sarmento H, Marcelino R, Anguera M, Campaniço J, Matos N, Leitão J. Match analysis in football: a systematic review. J Sports Sci. 2014;32: 1831–1843. doi:10.1080/02640414.2014.898852
Duarte R, Araujo D, Correia V, Davids K. Sports Teams as Superorganisms : Implications of Sociobiological Models of Behaviour for Research and Practice in Team Sports Performance Analysis. Sport Med. 2012;42: 633–642. doi:10.2165/11632450-000000000-00000
Rein R, Memmert D. Big data and tactical analysis in elite soccer: future challenges and opportunities for sports science. Springerplus. 2016;5: 1410. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3108-2
Thoseby B, Govus A, Clarke A, Middleton K, Dascombe B. Peak match acceleration demands differentiate between elite youth and professional football players. PLoS One. 2023;18: 1–10. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0277901
Lago-Peñas C, Gómez-Ruano M, Yang G. Styles of play in professional soccer: an approach of the Chinese Soccer Super League. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2017;17: 1073–1084. doi:10.1080/24748668.2018.1431857
Mclean S, Salmon P, Gorman A, Naughton M, Mclean S, Salmon P, et al. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science Do inter-continental playing styles exist ? Using social network analysis to compare goals from the 2016 EURO and COPA football tournaments knock- out stages. Theor Issues Ergon Sci. 2017;18: 370–383. doi:10.1080/1463922X.2017.1290158
Rein R, Memmert D. Big data and tactical analysis in elite soccer : future challenges and opportunities for sports science. Springerplus. 2016;5: 1410. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3108-2
Fernandez-Navarro J, Fradua L, Zubillaga A, McRobert AP. Influence of contextual variables on styles of play in soccer. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2018;18: 423–436. doi:10.1080/24748668.2018.1479925
Yiannakos A, Armatas V. Evaluation of the goal scoring patterns in European Championship in Portugal 2004. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2006;6: 178–188. doi:10.1080/24748668.2006.11868366
Hughes M, Franks I. Analysis of passing sequences, shots and goals in soccer. J Sports Sci. 2005;23: 509–514. doi:10.1080/02640410410001716779
Turner B, Sayers M. The influence of transition speed on event outcomes in a high performance football team. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2017;10: 207–220. doi:10.1080/24748668.2010.11868516
Narizuka T, Yamazaki Y. Clustering algorithm for formations in football games. Sci Rep. 2019;9: 13172. doi:10.1038/S41598-019-48623-1
Maneiro R, Casal C, Álvarez I, Moral J, López S, Ardá A, et al. Offensive transitions in high-performance football: Differences between UEFA Euro 2008 and UEFA Euro 2016. Front Psychol. 2019;10: 1230. doi:10.3389/FPSYG.2019.01230
Armatas, V.; Yiannakos A. Analysis and evaluation of goals scored in 2006 World Cup. J Sport Heal Res. 2010;2: 119–128.
Gonzalez-Rodenas J, Lopez-Bondia I, Moreno FC, Malavés RA. Tactical indicators associated with the creation of scoring opportunities in professional soccer in Professional Soccer. Ccd. 2015;10: 215–225. doi:10.12800/ccd.v10i30.590
Wright C, Atkins S, Polman R, Jones B, Lee S. Factors Associated with Goals and Goal Scoring Opportunities in Professional Soccer. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2011;11: 438–449. doi:10.1080/24748668.2011.11868563
Marcelino R, Sampaio J, Amichay G, Gonçalves B, Couzin I, Nagy M. Collective movement analysis reveals coordination tactics of team players in football matches. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals. 2020;138: 109831. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109831
Hewitt A, Greenham G, Norton K. Game style in soccer: What is it and can we quantify it? Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2016;16: 355–372. doi:10.1080/24748668.2016.11868892
Pollard R, Reep C. Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer. J R Stat Soc Ser D Stat. 1997;46: 541–550. doi:10.1111/1467-9884.00108
Welch M, Schaerf T, Murphy A. Collective states and their transitions in football. PLoS One. 2021;16. doi:10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0251970
American Psychological Association. American Psychological Association. Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct. Am Psychol. 2017;57: 1–20.
Winter E. Requirements for ethics approvals. J Sports Sci. 2009;27: 985. doi:10.1080/02640410903178344
Fernandez-Navarro J, Fradua L, Zubillaga A, Ford P, Mcrobert A, Fradua L, et al. Attacking and defensive styles of play in soccer : analysis of Spanish and English elite teams elite teams. J Sports Sci. 2016;34: 2195–2204. doi:10.1080/02640414.2016.1169309
Vincent G, Durny A. A Case Study of Forms of Sharing in a Highly Interdependent Soccer Team During Competitive Interactions. J Appl Sport Psychol. 2017;29: 466–483. doi:10.1080/10413200.2017.1287787
Santos P, Lago-Peñas C, García-García O. The influence of situational variables on defensive positioning in professional soccer. Int J Perform Anal Sport. 2017;17: 212–219. doi:10.1080/24748668.2017.1331571
Garganta J, Maia J, Basto F. Analysis of goal-scoring patterns in European top level soccer teams. In: Jens Bangsbo, Thomas Reilly AMW, editor. Science and Football III. 1997.
Larson O. Charles Reep: A Major Influence on British and Norwegian Football. Soccer Soc. 2001;2: 58–78. doi:10.1080/714004854
Forcher L, Altmann S, Forcher L, Jekauc D, Kempe M. The use of player tracking data to analyze defensive play in professional soccer - A scoping review. Int J Sport Sci Coach. 2022;17: 1567–1592. doi:10.1177/17479541221075734
Yeung C, Bunker R, Fujii K. A framework of interpretable match results prediction in football with FIFA ratings and team formation. PLoS One. 2023;18: 1–15. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0284318
Clemente F, Martins F, Mendes R, Figueiredo A. A systemic overview of football game : The principles behind the game. J Hum Sport Exerc. 2014. doi:10.14198/jhse.2014.92.05
Downloads
Additional Files
Posted
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Pedro Eusebio, Pablo Prieto-González, Rui Marcelino (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
